In the case of increased international maritime freight costs, which have a sustained impact on economic recovery, UNCTAD's recently released "Maritime Transport Report 2021" pointed out that in the coming months, the globalOcean freightThe likelihood of an increase is high and will have a lasting impact on the economic recovery。
UNCTAD's analysis shows that if the current surge in container freight rates continues, the level of global import prices is likely to increase by 11 per cent between now and 2023, and consumer prices are also likely to rise 1 per cent.5%。UNCTAD Secretary-General, Rebecca Agreenstein, said: "Until shipping returns to normal, today's surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and harm socio-economic recovery。
"Reviving investment requires a new approach that includes infrastructure, freight technology and digitization, and trade facilitation measures," she said。
The report said demand for goods surged between the second half of 2020 and 2021 as consumers spent money on goods rather than services during the lockdown and restrictions。Working from home, online shopping and increased computer sales are all placing unprecedented demands on the supply chain。
The significant increase in container flows has been met with limited supply side capacity, container shortages, Labour shortages, COVID-19 restrictions on crossing port areas and port congestion。
The mismatch between surging demand and supply capacity has led to record container freight rates on almost all container trade routes。
The report notes that persistently high interest rates have long affected global supply chains, and highlights that Europe has been facing shortages of consumer goods such as daily necessities, bicycles, sporting goods and toys from Asia。
According to the report, the increase in container transport costs will increase production costs, especially for low value-added products, which is likely to be weakened。For example, the prices of furniture, textiles, clothing, leather goods, rubber and plastic products increased 9.4%。Production of such products is often dispersed in low-wage economies far from major consumer markets;UNCTAD expects consumer prices to rise by 10 per cent as a result.2%。
In addition, most are concerned that the continued rise in transportation costs will affect not only imports and exports, but also the recovery of global manufacturing。The report pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing industry is mainly dependent on industrial supplies from China and other East Asian economies, so cost pressures persist, disruptions and delays in container traffic will hinder production, and industrial production in the United States and the euro area will decline further。